World trade in capital goods: Q2-2025 confirmed overall positive trends

The measurement at constant prices confirms the (albeit moderate) signs of strengthening of the industry outlook, but with significant differences at the sectoral level

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Conjuncture Metal industry Industrial equipment Automotive High-tech Uncertainty Industries Global economic trends
Stampa

The pre-estimates of the second quarter of 2025 of world trade, available in ExportPlanning in Quarterly World Trade Datamart, confirm a moderately expansionary phase for global exports of capital goods. At constant prices1, in the period April-June 2025, global exports of capital goods showed an estimated Year-over-Year growth of +4.5 percent, at the same rate as the first quarter of 2025 and accelerating compared to the 2024 average (+0.5% at constant prices).

Within the investment goods,
trends were quite differentiated at an industry level

World Exports of Investment Goods:
% Year-over-Year changes at constant prices

% Y-o-Y changes at constant prices
Industry Y2024 Q1-2025 Q2-2025E
Electrotechnical Engineering + 2.3% + 6.2% + 8.3%
Tools and Equipment for ICT and services + 4.0% +13.7% +13.5%
Tools and Equipment for industry + 2.7% + 3.2% + 4.3%
Automotive - 2.5% - 0.9% - 3.3%
Agricultural Machinery -10.5% - 0.9% + 0.4%
Earth-moving Machinery - 1.8% +17.1% + 3.4%
Industrial Machinery + 0.9% +10.9% + 8.2%
Mechanical Engineering - 4.5% + 0.7% + 3.4%
TOTAL Investment Goods + 0.5% + 5.4% + 4.5%
Source: ExportPlanning - Data - Quarterly Trade Data, World Trade Datamart

Analyzing the data on global sales by industries of capital goods, in the most recent quarter rather differentiated trends emerge. In particular:

  • the following industries are accelerating and in (also broadly) positive territory:
    • Electrotechnical Engineering2: thanks to the +8.3% Year-over-Year in the second quarter (at constant prices), it confirms the strengthening phase already seen in the first quarter of the year, decidedly more dynamic than the average pace for 2024;
    • Tools and Equipment for industry3: it shows a further - albeit moderate - consolidation of growth in the most recent quarter (+4.3% Y-o-Y at constant prices);
    • Mechanical Engineering4: further acceleration in the pace of growth in the most recent quarter (+3.4% Y-o-Y at constant prices), following the signs seen in the first quarter of the year, thus moving away from the difficulties of the 2024 average;
  • The following industries are confirmed in a phase of (even broad) growth:
    • Tools and Equipment for ICT and services5: this industry remains decidedly more dynamic, with a Y-o-Y growth in the most recent quarter of +13.5% (at the same rate as the first quarter of the year);
    • Industrial Machinery6: in the second quarter of the year, it confirmed favorable growth rates (+8.2% Y-o-Y at constant prices), signaling a change in pace compared to the 2024 average. It should also be noted that, within this industry, performances are quite differentiated at a sectoral level7;
  • the Earth-moving Machinery8 industry appears to be decelerating, although still showing positive Y-o-Y dynamics, recording a trend growth of +3.4% in the second quarter of 2025, but decidedly less favorable than that seen in the first three months of the year;
  • the Agricultural Machinery9 industry remains still lacking dynamics, after the sharp decline in 2024 (+0.4% Y-o-Y at constant prices in the period April-June 2025), only slightly improving compared to the first quarter;
  • highlights a further deterioration, remaining in negative territory the Automotive10 industry: the second quarter of 2025 saw a further deterioration in global exports, with a Y-o-Y reduction of more than 3 percentage points at constant prices, after signs of an easing of the negative phase seen in the first quarter of the year.

The importance of monitoring market conditions
at a "product-specific" level

Recent world trade data confirm an overall context of moderate growth in world trade of capital goods.
The high heterogeneity of the results at the sector level suggests, moreover, to an exporting company the strategic utility of continuous monitoring of market conditions, at the level of demand and dynamics of the main competitors for the product/strategic business area of reference, in order to allow it to best support its international positioning.

With the aim of allowing constant monitoring of foreign markets of reference at a "product-specific" level, ExportPlanning provides Market Insights, a series of on-demand information services aimed at specifically supporting the market intelligence and budgeting processes of exporting companies.

1) The measure Quantities at constant prices (Q). This measure includes a deflation operation, in which the historical series of monetary values (V) has been transformed into an analogous series of values expressed at constant prices, with a reference to a given year, known as the base year. For a description of the methodology applied, please refer to Methodological Note on the Quarterly World Trade Datamart.
2) See here the related description table.
3) See here the related description table.
4) See here the related description table.
5) See here the related description table.
6) See here the related description table.
7) Within the machinery industry, we note the double-digit percentage Year-over-Year performances for global exports of extrusion machinery (+25.3% at constant prices compared to the corresponding period in 2024, thus consolidating the favorable trend of the first quarter [+24.8%]), metal processing machinery (+13.7%, only slightly decelerating compared to the first quarter [+18.7%]), textile machinery (+12.6%, at the same growth rates as the previous quarter), and other special-purpose machinery (+10.7%, confirming the growth rate of the previous quarter).
On the other hand, we note the negative trend performance for world exports of printing machinery (-3.5% at constant prices compared to the second quarter of 2024, a sharp deceleration compared to the first quarter of the year [+15.1%]) and the recent weak dynamics of paper-making machinery (+1.5%), food machinery (+2.4%) and metalworking machine tools (+2.6%, decelerating compared to the previous quarter).
8) See here the related description table.
9) See here the related description table.
10) See here the related description table.