World Exports 2025 of Food & Beverage: a preliminary assessment

Slowdown in Q4-2025, but still moderately positive dynamics measured at constant prices

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Food&Beverage Export Conjuncture Agribusiness
Stampa

The preliminary estimates of world trade for the fourth quarter of 2025, available in the ExportPlanning Information System, confirmed the ongoing slowdown in global sales of Packaged Food and Beverages1.

In Q4-2025 a weak Y-o-Y increase in global Food & Beverage sales led to a less favorable average annual growth than that recorded in 2024...

In the most recent quarter (Q4-2025), world exports of Packaged Food and Beverages showed weak Year-over-Year growth (+0.5%, at constant prices), confirming the weakening of the industry outlook.

However, in the preliminary 2025 figures, world exports of Food & Beverage recorded a moderate overall increase (+1.6%, at constant prices), worsening compared to the previous year (+4.2%).

.. widespread across almost all sectors
(albeit with varying degrees)...

The table below shows the 2024-2025 performance of world exports of Packaged Food and Beverages by sector. The sectoral picture shows 2025 results (measured at constant prices) that are less favorable than the 2024 average for most of the sectors examined.

World Exports of Packaged Food and Beverages: Y-o-Y % changes at constant prices

Year-over-Year % changes at constant prices
Year 2024 Jan-Sep 2025 Q4-2025E Year 2025E
Meat and Fish (processed and packed) + 6.5 + 2.2 + 0.2 + 1.7
Alcoholic Beverages + 0.1 + 0.9 + 0.1 + 0.7
Dairy Products + 2.1 + 3.1 + 1.5 + 2.7
Confectionery + 3.6 - 1.0 + 1.2 - 0.5
Water and Soft Drinks + 4.6 + 1.3 - 2.8 + 0.3
Cookies and other Baked Goods + 4.2 + 2.8 + 3.5 + 3.0
Vegetables&Fruit (processed and packed) + 3.6 + 0.9 - 1.9 + 0.2
Oil, Condiments and Spices + 5.1 + 5.8 + 6.4 + 6.0
Rice, Pasta and Flour (packaged) +10.1 + 3.8 - 2.8 + 2.0
Tea and Coffee (packaged) + 5.2 - 0.3 - 0.7 - 0.4
TOTAL + 4.2 + 2.0 + 0.5 + 1.6
Source: ExportPlanning - Data Hub - Quarterly Trade Data, World Trade Datamart

Within the Food & Beverage, the following performances are noted for 2025:

  • Significant slowdowns compared to the 2024 average for global sales of Packaged Rice, Pasta, and Flour (slowing by more than 8 percentage points in the 2025 average, although still growing at the end of the year), Packaged Tea and Coffee (slowing by almost 6 percentage points compared to 2024, and with an overall result of a slight average annual reduction), Meat and Fish (processed and packaged) (decelerating by about 5 percentage points in the 2025 average, although maintaining a positive average annual trend), Water and Soft Drinks (decelerating by more than 4 percentage points compared to 2024, with an overall annual average stability) and Confectionery, whose average annual deceleration was 4 percentage points, leading to a slightly negative average annual result;
  • weak average annual decelerations for global sales Vegetables and Fruit (processed and packaged) (slowing by 3.4 percentage points compared to 2024, and overall stable in 2025) and confirmation of less dynamic trends for Alcoholic Beverages (+0.7% on average 2025, after +0.1% in 2024);
  • confirmation of positive trends, measured at constant prices, for world exports of Oil, Condiments and Spices (+6% in the preliminary 2025 figures, after an average annual increase of +5.1% in 2024), Biscuits and other Baked Goods (+3% in the 2025 average, only slightly slowing compared to 2024) and Dairy Products (+2.7% in the preliminary 2025 figures, slightly improving compared to the +2.1% average in 2024).

.. but in a very differentiated picture
at the level of competitor countries.

Despite a weakly positive picture, within the group of the main global exporters of Packaged Food and Beverages, quite differentiated performances for 2025 are reported:

  • exports from India (+10.9%, measured at constant prices), Spain (+6.5%), Belgium (+3.9%), Poland (+3%) and Germany (+2.6%) grew even strongly;
  • exports remained stable (if not even slightly declining) for Italy (+1.6%), United States (+0.2%), France (-0.5%) and Netherlands (-0.8%);
  • finally, exports from Thailand (-7.2%, at constant prices) and China (-4.5%) recorded an average annual decline.

Conclusions

The most recent trends confirm a deteriorating context for global Food & Beverage.
However, the highly heterogeneous results at the sector level and, above all, at the competitor country level suggests to an exporting company the strategic utility of continuously monitoring market conditions, in terms of demand and the dynamics of the main competitors for the product/strategic business area in order to best support its international positioning.

The importance of monitoring market conditions
at a "product-specific" level

With the aim of enabling constant monitoring of foreign markets of reference at a "product-specific" level, ExportPlanning offers the Customs Declarations Database service, an "on-demand" supply of monthly market data, customized at the level of customs codes and markets of interest.

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