Released by the IMF are the latest forecasts for the international macroeconomic outlook.

The latest forecasts on the international macroeconomic scenario (World Economic Outlook, October 2025) have been released by the International Monetary Fund (IMF). A central factor is, of course, the new measures of U.S. trade policy, to which the global economy is gradually adapting.

If in the previous April outlook, in line with the initial Trump-era announcements, the IMF’s key words had been “uncertainty” and “downward revision” for global economic growth prospects, the developments in the following months have actually turned out to be among the least bleak within the range of possible outcomes foreseen by the Fund. Although Trump’s actions represented a “major departure from trade policy rules and norms,” the subsequent achievement of trade agreements with multiple countries, and the introduction of numerous tariff exemptions, have indeed mitigated the overall impact of the shock.

The credit is also attributable to the United States’ trading partners, many of whom refrained from retaliating, thereby keeping the global trading system substantially open. The private sector also demonstrated agility by significantly anticipating imports in the first half of the year (the so-called “front-loading” effect) and rapidly reorganizing its supply chains.

Global GDP revised upward, but uncertainty remains high

In this context, the estimates for global GDP growth in the current year have been revised upward compared to last April: while in the spring the Fund had forecast a 2.8% growth for the global economy in 2025, it now estimates an increase of +3.2% (+3.1% in 2026).
The projected growth for 2025 has therefore returned to the levels expected at the end of last year, before the start of Trump’s second term; the same cannot be said, however, for the growth forecast for 2026. It is in fact expected that in the second half of 2025 the significant inventory effect – a temporary factor that supported the global economy in anticipation of the implementation of tariffs – will fade out. Considering therefore a slowdown in the pace of global economic growth in the second half of the current year, and only a partial recovery in 2026, the IMF estimates a cumulative global output loss of about 0.2% by the end of next year.

Source: StudiaBo elaborations on IMF data

Overview of risks

Despite a rather solid first half of 2025 in terms of international economic performance, the scenario remains fragile and risks are tilted to the downside. Let us not forget that, at present, the United States, the world’s largest importer of goods, has an average tariff rate close to 20%, and trade tensions continue to pose a threat to the global economy.
This is confirmed by the global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index which, although retreating from the peaks reached last spring, still remains well above its historical average – in the absence of clear, transparent, and lasting agreements, and with attention beginning to shift from the final level of tariffs to their impact on prices, investments, and consumption.

Source: StudiaBo elaborations on data from policyuncertainty.com

According to the Fund, not only trade uncertainty but also additional factors are weighing on global economic prospects.

• First and foremost, the current Artificial Intelligence boom, which shows some parallels with the late-1990s dot-com bubble, with significant profit expectations that may ultimately not be fulfilled.
• Secondly, China, the Asian giant, whose growth prospects remain weak, with real estate investment continuing to decline and the strong contribution of manufacturing exports to the country’s growth deemed unsustainable in the long term.
• Another risk factor highlighted by the Fund is the pressure on policy-making institutions such as central banks (consider, for instance, the recent Trump–Federal Reserve disputes), which, if successful, could undermine the credibility of central banks and their ability to ensure price stability.

Although downside risks prevail in the current scenario, some significant upside risks could, on the other hand, quickly improve the outlook: above all, resolving and reducing policy uncertainty would give a strong boost to the global economy. The Fund therefore reiterates the primary role of policies, which can and must contribute to restoring confidence and predictability, thereby improving (where possible) the prospects for global economic growth.