European Exports: Signs of Weakness and a Growing Divide Between Intra- and Extra-EU Markets

The latest update of the European Union’s foreign trade data, collected by ExportPlanning within the EU Conjuncture datamart, provides a detailed overview of the performance of European exports over the past year and a half, with particular focus on the third quarter of 2025.

The first chart shows the monthly year-on-year changes in EU exports, distinguishing between intra-EU exports (to partner countries within the Union) and extra-EU exports (to third countries).

Source: ExportPlanning elaborations.

Following the difficulties that marked 2023 and most of 2024, the trend of European exports continues to show signs of weakness in 2025. A key feature that has become increasingly evident is the progressive divergence between intra-EU and extra-EU flows: until the end of 2024, both followed similar patterns, but since December 2024, a growing decoupling has been observed, which has continued sharply into the third quarter of 2025.

In particular, extra-EU exports have recorded negative variations in almost all periods analyzed, while intra-EU exports have generally remained in positive territory.

One of the main causes behind the deterioration of extra-EU exports can be linked to the adoption by the United States of protectionist measures and new customs tariffs on a wide range of imported goods. This context has generated significant pressure on international trade dynamics, with particularly pronounced effects on European exports to the US.

It remains to be seen whether, and to what extent, European firms are responding to these shocks through a reallocation of trade flows, redirecting towards other international markets the volumes no longer absorbed by the United States.

Sectoral recomposition of European exports

The following chart analyzes the year-on-year variation in European exports during the first eight months of 2025, compared with the same period in 2024.
The horizontal axis shows the change in exports to the United States, while the vertical axis refers to extra-EU exports (excluding the US). The size of the bubbles represents the total export value in 2024, thus highlighting the relative weight of each sector.

European exports by industry
(Year-on-year variation in euros)

Source: ExportPlanning elaborations.

Overall, the data outline a still fragile situation for European foreign trade. The performance of major sectors shows that Europe has not yet achieved an effective geographical diversification of its exports: the difficulties of extra-EU trade are not limited to the US market but extend more broadly to other international destinations.

Within this context, however, it is possible to identify specific clusters of sectoral behavior:

• Cluster 1 – Resilient sectors: includes industries that have not been negatively affected by US protectionist measures and have instead recorded significant growth both towards the US and the rest of the extra-EU world. These include:
  • Finished electronic goods (F1)
  • Non-electronic capital goods (F5)
  • Health products and instruments (E4)
• Cluster 2 – Sectors penalized in extra-EU markets: includes industries that, although not directly hit by the US protectionist wave, have nevertheless experienced a decline in exports to other extra-EU markets. Among these:
  • Most intermediate goods (B3, B4, B6, C1, D2)
  • Industrial raw materials (A2)
• Cluster 3 – Sectors in double contraction: represents the industries most affected, which have suffered a simultaneous decrease in exports both to the United States and to other extra-EU countries. The most relevant include:
  • Capital goods (F3)
  • Intermediate goods (D3)
  • Finished personal goods (E2)
  • Packaged food and beverages (E0)

Conclusions

The overall picture highlights a Europe still vulnerable to external shocks, with an export structure that struggles to adapt dynamically. The dependence on specific destination areas and the slow pace of diversification make European exports exposed to geopolitical and commercial fluctuations.
At the same time, some sectors – particularly those with high technological or healthcare content – show signs of resilience and adaptability, elements that could support a more robust recovery in the medium term.