Italian Exports in 2019: clear Signs of Growth Deterioration

The weakness in international trade has mainly affected the Northwest district, but also the North-East and Centre are slowing down


Slowdown Regional export Conjuncture Check performance Data visualization Made in Italy Global economic trends

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Recent data on Italian foreign trade at a territorial level confirmed increasing difficulties of Italian exports in the final part of 2019.

The deterioration of Italian exports
intensified in the 4th quarter of 2019...

The North-Western of Italy appears to be the most affected by the deterioration of the economic situation: only 6 provinces out of 25 (of which 2 with very moderate, if not almost zero, increases) showed a growth in exports at the end of 2019. It should also be noted that the dynamics in the first part of the year were not at all brilliant, with growth limited to a few areas and, in some cases, vanished during the year.

Also the North-Eastern territories, which had shown a particular "resilience" in the first three quarters of the year, showed a significant slowdown in the last quarter of 2019. In the period October-December 2019 the share of territories with positive export increase contracted, although they still represent the majority (55%). However, at year-end, the export performance of the north-eastern territories is generally positive, with more than 2 out of 3 provinces growing in cumulative annual values.

Evident signs of a weakening of export performance stand out also for the Central territories of Italy: after a first part of the year that saw a significant majority (68%) of territories growing in export values, in the fourth quarter of 2019 the share of provinces growing in trend values fell to just 50%, bringing the overall balance for the year to a share of territories growing in exports (59%), however, higher than the final figure for 2018 (when this share had stopped at 55%).

Finally, in the Southern territories, despite a 4th quarter that saw a slight majority (55%) of territories growing in export trends, at the end of 2019 only 47% of provinces recorded an Year-over-Year increase in exports.

... with the greatest difficulties in the North-West.
A moderate export growth stands out also for North-East and Central Italy regions.

Italian Exports: share provinces with upward export trend
Italian Territories Jan-Sep2019 Oct-Dec2019 Year 2019 Year 2018
North-Western 36% 32% 24% 88%
North-Eastern 73% 55% 68% 91%
Central 68% 50% 59% 55%
Southern 37% 55% 47% 74%
Total 50% 49% 49% 77%
Source: ExportPlanning - Exportpedia

Data of Italian exports at a territorial level, available in Exportpedia1, report less than half of provinces growing in cumulative export values, compared with 77% of the 2018 average1.

Exports from Italian provinces: Year-over-Year Percentage Change in 2019

Exports from the Italian provinces: Y-o-Y % changes for year 2019
Source: ExportPlanning - Exportpedia
ATTENTION: variations related to the provinces of Sardinia are not considered, since from Q1-2018 a new regional structure was established by the Regional Law n. 2/2016.

1) In order to take a dynamic view of the ongoing deterioration in exports of Italian territories, see the video animation in the bar at the bottom of the Exportpedia home page.