Home Products: the Normalization Phase of World Trade in the first part of 2022
After a particularly positive two-year period, in the first half of 2022 the world demand for the Home Products showed a downward phase
Published by Marcello Antonioni. .Slowdown Home items Great Lockdown Conjuncture Check performance Export Global economic trends
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After two years marked by particular dynamism ...
In the two-year period 2020-2021 the world trade of Home Products was among the most dynamic in terms of manufacturing industries1: positive also in the annus horribilis 2020 (+1.2 at constant prices, against an overall average for manufactured goods of -7.6 per cent) and particularly dynamic the following year (+15.2%, again at constant prices).
On the average of the two-year period, there was an average annual increase in world trade of the Home Products of 8 per cent in quantities at constant prices, against an overall growth in world trade in manufactured goods equal to +3.4% at constant prices.
Two-digit average annual rates of variation in the evolution of the world trade of Home Products in the two-year period 2020-2021 characterized the sectors Pots and pans (CAGR: +17%), Cutlery and cutlery (+11.0%), Lighting technology (+10.8%) and Household appliances (+10.2%).
In general, all the sectors that make up the Home Products recorded, on average for the two-year period 2020-2021, an increase in quantities at constant prices compared to 2019.
It can therefore be stated, without a shadow of denial, that the Home Products has gone through the most acute phase of the Covid19 pandemic, highlighting a favorable growth dynamic, sustained - in correspondence with the lockdown measures. implemented in a generalized manner by the authorities at the international level to counter the spread of the virus - by a significant shift in household preferences towards the assets of the Home Products.
... in the first half of 2022 there are signs of "normalization"
for the world trade of Home Products
The "normalization" phase of the growth of world trade in the Home Products industry began to manifest itself in the second half of last year, with trend growth rates down to + 4.2%, however staying in positive territory.
The first part of 2022 instead showed a contraction in the world trade of the Home Products: this contraction, although relatively contained (-2.1% in the first half year 2022 compared to the first half of 2021, measured at constant prices2), is more penalizing than that experienced by the manufacturing average, whose world trade grew in the first half of 2022 by +4% in trend terms (constant prices).
Main sectors of the Home Products industry: world trade trends (constant prices)
Source: ExportPlanning-World Trade Datamart
The greatest slowdowns in world trade in the first part of 2022 particularly affected the Pots and pans sectors (with a slowdown by more than 17 percentage points compared to the average pace 2020-2021), Lighting technology (slowing down by over 16 p.p.), Consumer Electronics (with a delta of about 15 p.p.) and Household Appliances (-13.1 percentage points compared to the 2020-2021 average pace).
Although slowing down, but with decidedly more contained intensity, there are also trend variations at constant prices in world exports of Furniture (down by 6.5 percentage points compared to the 2020-2021 average), Cutlery (-7.4 p.p., but keeping a growth trend), Carpets (-8.7 p.p.) and Home Textile (-9.3 p.p.).
On the other hand, we note the positive bucking performance of the Glasses and tableware sector, whose rate of growth in world trade rose from +1.3% in terms of CAGR for the period 2020-2021 to +11.8% in the first half of 2022.
In the context of the pandemic crisis, the companies of the Home Products industry have been able to intercept the shift in household preferences towards products linked to the quality of domestic living, recording a 2020-2021 result of significant growth in world trade flows.
The first six months of 2022 signal the start of a process - however expected - of "normalization" of demand, which has led to a sharp downsizing of the rate of growth (which has become negative) in world trade of Home Products.
For the companies of this industry, therefore, 2022 - also thanks to the phase of increase in the costs of raw materials - is characterized by a particularly selective environmental context, which will require a timely ability to monitor the evolution of the various international markets at of a single business area, in order to make it possible to seize growth opportunities where they are most relevant.
1) The most dynamic industries by far in the average of the 2020-2021 two-year period in terms of world trade were in the order: Electronic Components (CAGR: + 13.4% at constant prices), Health Goods (+13.3%), ICT and Services Equipment (+8.3%).
2) This is the least favorable performance (second only to that of Intermediates in Paper and Wood: -2.9%) among the main industries that make up the aggregate of manufactured goods.