In a context of slowdown, the driving markets of the Home supply chain in the 2023-2024 scenario

The new ExportPlanning forecasts help identify the markets expected to show the largest increases in demand

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Forecast Foreign markets Uncertainty Foreign market analysis

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The forecasts recently formulated by StudiaBo within the ExportPlanning Information System, starting from world trade data for the 1st quarter of 2023 and the spring macroeconomic scenario of the International Monetary Fund, can make it possible to identify those markets which, in an overall context of slowdown, will be able to offer the greatest growth potential in the 2023-2024 horizon.

An interesting case is that of the Home Supply Chain, which - as documented in the recent article "The significant Slowdown in world trade of the Home Supply Chain" - is going through a significant slowdown phase.
In this supply chain, the ExportPlanning forecasts for world trade in the two-year period 2023-2024 indicate a rather significant expected slowdown in the dynamics of values in euro: from an average annual rate of +15.1% in the two-year period 2021-2022 to +4.1% annual average expected for the period 2023-2024.

In the continuation of this article we will document, for the main sectors of the home supply chain, the markets expected to offer the most significant growth ideas in the next two years.

Building Materials and Products

In the 2023-2024 scenario, world trade in Building Materials and Products1 measured in values in euro is expected to decelerate significantly compared to the most recent two-year period: from an average annual +17.9% in the 2021 period -2022, an average annual rate of +4.1% is expected in the next two years.


United States, Germany and United Kingdom the markets expected with the greatest absolute increases in the two-year period 2023-2024; Mexico, Philippines and India those with the highest percentage growth

Faucets and Valves
Based on ExportPlanning forecasts, in the Faucets and Valves2 sector, the following markets with the highest expected growth can be highlighted:
  • markets with largest absolute gains:
    1. United States: in the two-year period 2023-2024, imports from the world of this market are expected to grow by more than 850 million euros ( corresponding to a CAGR [Compound Annual Growth Rate] of +4.3%);
    2. China: in the two-year period 2023-2024, imports from the world of this market are expected to grow by almost 400 million euros (CAGR : +4.1%);
    3. Germany: in the two-year period 2023-2024, imports from the world of this market are expected to grow by approximately 385 million euros (CAGR : +5.1%);
  • markets with largest percentage gains3:
    1. Mexico: an average annual growth rate (CAGR) of +8.4% is expected in the two-year period 2023-2024 for this market corresponding to an absolute increase of 286 million euros;
    2. Turkey: for this market, a CAGR of +7% is expected in the two-year period 2023-2024, corresponding to an absolute increase of 117 million euros;
    3. Czech-Rep: a CAGR of +6.9% is expected for this market in the two-year period 2023-2024, corresponding to an absolute increase of 100 million euros.
Flooring
The ExportPlanning forecasts for the Flooring4 sector highlight the following markets with the highest expected growth:
  • markets with largest absolute gains:
    1. United States: in the two-year period 2023-2024, this market is expected to grow in size worldwide by almost 700 million euros ( corresponding to a CAGR [Compound Annual Growth Rate] of +4.3%);
    2. Germany: in the two-year period 2023-2024, imports from the world of this market are expected to grow by 145 million euros (CAGR: +3%);
    3. The Netherlands5: in the two-year period 2023-2024, an increase in imports from the world of this market of approximately 133 million euro (CAGR: +6.2%);
  • markets with largest percentage gains3:
    1. Mexico: an average annual growth rate (CAGR) of +9.5% is expected in the two-year period 2023-2024 for this market corresponding to an absolute increase of 75 million euros;
    2. Thailand: a CAGR of +8.4% is forecast for this market in the two-year period 2023-2024, corresponding to an absolute increase of 66 million euros;
    3. Philippines: for this market, a CAGR of +7.3% is expected in the two-year period 2023-2024, corresponding to an absolute increase of over 109 million euros.
Doors and windows
The ExportPlanning forecasts for the Doors and windows6 sector indicate the following markets with the highest expected growth:
  • markets with largest absolute gains:
    1. United States: in the two-year period 2023-2024, this market is expected to grow in size from the world by around 431 million euros ( corresponding to a CAGR [Compound Annual Growth Rate] of +3.9%);
    2. United Kingdom: in the two-year period 2023-2024, this market is expected to grow in size from the world by 207 million euros (CAGR : +5.1%);
    3. Germany: in the two-year period 2023-2024, imports from the world of this market are expected to grow by approximately 202 million euros (CAGR : +4.1%);
  • markets with largest percentage gains3:
    1. Uzbekistan: an average annual growth rate (CAGR) of +10.2% is expected for this market in the two-year period 2023-2024 corresponding to an absolute increase of approximately 50 million euro;
    2. Czech-Rep: for this market, a CAGR of +7.7% is expected in the two-year period 2023-2024, corresponding to an absolute increase of 68 million euros;
    3. Indonesia: for this market, a CAGR of +7.5% is expected in the two-year period 2023-2024, corresponding to an absolute increase of 129 million euros.
Sanitaryware and other bathroom products
The ExportPlanning forecasts for the Sanitaryware and other bathroom products7 sector indicate the following markets with the highest expected growth:
  • markets with largest absolute gains:
    1. United States: in the two-year period 2023-2024, this market is expected to grow in size from the world by 314 million euros (corresponding at a CAGR of +5.2%);
    2. Germany: in the two-year period 2023-2024, imports from the world of this market are expected to grow by approximately 67 million euros (CAGR : +3.3%);
    3. France: in the two-year period 2023-2024, imports from the world of this market are expected to grow by approximately 62 million euros (CAGR : +4%);
  • markets with largest percentage gains3:
    1. Thailand: an average annual growth rate (CAGR) of +9.3% is expected for this market in the two-year period 2023-2024 corresponding to an absolute increase of approximately 27 million euro;
    2. Mexico: for this market, a CAGR of +9.3% is expected in the two-year period 2023-2024, corresponding to an absolute increase of over 25 million euros;
    3. India: for this market, a CAGR of +9.1% is expected in the two-year period 2023-2024, corresponding to an absolute increase of over 42 million euros.

Finished goods for the Home

In the 2023-2024 scenario, world trade in goods and finished products for the home... measured in euro values is also expected to show a significant deceleration compared to the most recent two-year period: from +14.4 average annual rate for the period 2021-2022, an average annual rate of +4.1% is expected in the next two years.


USA and Germany the markets expected with the greatest absolute increases in the two-year period 2023-'24; Poland, Mexico, Czech-Rep, Vietnam and India with the highest growth percentages

Household appliances
The ExportPlanning forecasts for the household appliances9 sector highlight the following markets with the highest expected growth:
  • markets with largest absolute gains:
    1. United States: in the two-year period 2023-2024, imports from the world of this market are expected to grow by 4.4 billion euros (corresponding at a CAGR [Compound Annual Growth Rate] of +5.3%);
    2. Germany: in the two-year period 2023-2024, imports from the world of this market are expected to grow by more than 1.5 billion euros (CAGR : +5.1%);
    3. Japan: in the two-year period 2023-2024, imports from the world of this market are expected to grow by almost 1.1 billion euros (CAGR : +7.5%);
  • markets with largest percentage gains3:
    1. Mexico: an average annual growth rate (CAGR) of +10% is expected in the two-year period 2023-2024 for this market corresponding to an absolute increase of over 425 million euro;
    2. Hungary: for this market, a CAGR of +8.7% is expected in the two-year period 2023-2024, corresponding to an absolute increase of over 290 million euros;
    3. Chile: for this market, a CAGR of +8.7% is expected in the two-year period 2023-2024, corresponding to an absolute increase of approximately 178 million euros.
Consumer electronics
The ExportPlanning forecasts for the consumer electronics10 sector highlight the following markets with the highest expected growth:
  • markets with largest absolute gains:
    1. United States: in the two-year period 2023-2024, imports from the world of this market are expected to grow by 3.1 billion euros (corresponding at a CAGR [Compound Annual Growth Rate] of +3%);
    2. The Netherlands2: in the two-year period 2023-2024 an increase in imports from the world of this market of almost 1.5 billion euro (CAGR: +7%);
    3. Japan: in the two-year period 2023-2024, imports from the world of this market are expected to grow by almost 1.2 billion euros (CAGR : +5.9%);
  • markets with largest percentage gains3:
    1. Mexico: an average annual growth rate (CAGR) of +10.1% is expected in the two-year period 2023-2024 for this market corresponding to an absolute increase of approximately 731 million euro;
    2. Rep-Czech: for this market, a CAGR of +8.7% is expected in the two-year period 2023-2024, corresponding to an absolute increase of 379 million euros;
    3. India: for this market, a CAGR of +8.6% is expected in the two-year period 2023-2024, corresponding to an absolute increase of over 630 million euros.
Furniture and furnishings
Based on the ExportPlanning forecasts for the furniture and furnishing elements11 sector, the following markets with the highest expected growth can be highlighted:
  • markets with largest absolute gains:
    1. United States: in the two-year period 2023-2024, imports from the world of this market are expected to grow by almost 2.9 billion euros ( corresponding to a CAGR [Compound Annual Growth Rate] of +4.1%);
    2. United Kingdom: in the two-year period 2023-2024, imports from the world of this market are expected to grow by almost 524 million euros ( CAGR: +4.3%);
    3. France: in the two-year period 2023-2024, imports from the world of this market are expected to grow by approximately 449 million euros (CAGR : +4%);
  • markets with largest percentage gains3:
    1. Cameroon: an average annual growth rate (CAGR) of +12.2% is expected in the two-year period 2023-2024 for this market corresponding to an absolute increase of approximately 103 million euro;
    2. Chile: for this market, a CAGR of +10% is expected in the two-year period 2023-2024, corresponding to an absolute increase of 79 million euros;
    3. Mexico: for this market, a CAGR of +8.8% is expected in the two-year period 2023-2024, corresponding to an absolute increase of approximately 91 million euros.
Lighting technology
The ExportPlanning forecasts for the lighting technology12 sector highlight the following markets with the highest expected growth:
  • markets with largest absolute gains:
    1. United States: in the two-year period 2023-2024, imports from the world of this market are expected to grow by more than 1.1 billion euros ( corresponding to a CAGR [Compound Annual Growth Rate] of +4.1%);
    2. Germany: in the two-year period 2023-2024, imports from the world of this market are expected to grow by 344 million euros (CAGR: +4.4%);
    3. The Netherlands2: in the two-year period 2023-2024 an increase in imports from the world of this market of around 295 million euro (CAGR: +6.4%);
  • markets with largest percentage gains3:
    1. Mexico: an average annual growth rate (CAGR) of +8.7% is expected in the two-year period 2023-2024 for this market corresponding to an absolute increase of approximately 127 million euro;
    2. Vietnam: for this market, a CAGR of +8.2% is expected in the two-year period 2023-2024, corresponding to an absolute increase of 61 million euros;
    3. Brazil: for this market, a CAGR of +7% is expected in the two-year period 2023-2024, corresponding to an absolute increase of over 90 million euros.
Home textiles
The ExportPlanning forecasts for the home textiles13 sector indicate the following markets with the highest expected growth:
  • markets with largest absolute gains:
    1. United States: in the two-year period 2023-2024, imports from the world of this market are expected to grow by almost 1.1 billion euros ( corresponding to a CAGR [Compound Annual Growth Rate] of +4.8%);
    2. Germany: in the two-year period 2023-2024, imports from the world of this market are expected to grow by 329 million euros (CAGR: +4.4%);
    3. Japan: in the two-year period 2023-2024, imports from the world of this market are expected to grow by approximately 273 million euros (CAGR : +4.7%);
  • markets with largest percentage gains3:
    1. Chile: an average annual growth rate (CAGR) of +10.4% is expected in the two-year period 2023-2024 for this market corresponding to an absolute increase of over 108 million euro;
    2. Mexico: for this market, a CAGR of +10% is expected in the two-year period 2023-2024, corresponding to an absolute increase of approximately 73 million euros;
    3. Czech-Rep: for this market, a CAGR of +8.6% is expected in the two-year period 2023-2024, corresponding to an absolute increase of 67 million euros.

Conclusions

In a 2023-2024 scenario made more selective by the slowdown of the international economy and the expected impacts on the consumption of products in the Home Supply Chain, exporting companies in the supply chain will focus their marketing and commercial development processes on those markets expected to show the greatest signs of growth.
In this article, based on the ExportPlanning forecasts14, we have reported some cases of markets which, for the various sectors of the supply chain, are expected to offer the greatest growth, both in absolute and relative terms (growth rates).

1) For a description of the sectors included therein, see the related industry profile.
2) For a description of the products included therein, see the related sector profile.
3) The selection concerned the top 30 markets by value of imports in 2022, in order to signal markets that in any case had adequate significance in the starting levels.
4) For a description of the products included therein, see the related sector profile.
5) This performance most likely appears to be significantly linked to the role of commercial "hub" of the Netherlands (in favor of European markets), enabled by the presence of the port of Rotterdam.
6) For a description of the products included therein, see the related sector profile.
7) For a description of the products included therein, see the related sector profile.
8) For a description of the sectors included therein, see the related industry profile.
9) For a description of the products included therein, see the related sector profile.
10) For a description of the products included therein, see the related sector profile.
11) For a description of the products included therein, see the related sector profile.
12) For a description of the products included therein, see the related sector profile.
13) For a description of the products included therein, see the related sector profile.
14) ExportPlanning forecasts can allow you to deepen the analysis of the markets expected to show the greatest growth at a product-level (single customs code or aggregation of customs codes).