World Trade in Capital Goods: Preliminary Results for 2025 and Forecasts for 2026-2029

In 2025 world trade in capital goods
has been maintaining a positive trend

Based on data from the third quarter of 2025 on world trade¹, ExportPlanning has made a pre-estimate of the 2025 world trade in capital goods, available in the Forecast Datamart: the current year is expected to show a increase of +4.9% in euros compared to 2024.
This average annual performance is in line with that of the previous year (which closed with an average annual growth of +4.6% in euros), which confirmed that global demand for capital goods was positive even when measured at constant prices².

The estimated average annual increase in world trade in capital goods at the end of 2025 finds the greatest positive contributions from growth in international trade in ICT tools and equipment and services³ and industrial process machinery and equipment⁴, both with average annual increases estimated in double-digit percentages for 2025.

The 2026 scenario is less favorable, to a widespread extent
in the main capital goods sectors

The 2026-2029 forecasts, formulated by StudiaBo based on the most recent macroeconomic scenario of the International Monetary Fund (WEO-October 2025⁵), highlight a picture of widespread deterioration for next year when measured in euro terms.

In fact, due to a forecast of a renewed appreciation of the euro against the dollar by almost 5 percentage points on average over the year, world trade in capital goods is expected to decline by 3.3 percentage points in euro terms in 2026 (but +1.3% when measured in dollar terms). Furthermore, as the table below shows, the expected deterioration will be widespread across all major capital goods sectors.

Within the investment goods,
trends were quite differentiated at an industry level

World Trade of Investment Goods:
% Compound Annual Growth Rates in euro

Analyzing the 2026 forecasts for macro-sectors of capital goods, generalized average annual declines emerge. In particular:

• The following macro-sectors are expected to slow down sharply:
• Industrial Machinery, whose global trade is expected to show an overall slowdown of almost 15 percentage points in euro values, leading to an average annual decline of 4.5 percentage points compared to 2025;
• Tools and Equipment for ICT and services, with a deceleration expected next year of approximately 14 percentage points in euro values, leading to an average annual reduction of 3.5 percentage points compared to 2025;
• Electrotechnical Engineering⁶, whose global trade is expected to decelerate by more than 8 percentage points in euro values next year, leading to an average annual reduction of -3.6%;
• On the other hand, more limited slowdowns are reported for world trade in:
• Agricultural Machinery⁷, with a deceleration next year expected of 2.4 percentage points in euro values, leading to an average annual reduction of close to 3 percent;
• Earth-moving Machinery⁸, with a deceleration next year expected of 3.3 percentage points in euro values, resulting in an average annual reduction of 2.8 percent;
• Automotive⁹, with a deceleration expected next year of 4 percentage points in euro values, resulting in an average annual reduction of 3.3 percent;
• Tools and Equipment for industry¹⁰, with a deceleration expected next year of just over 4 percentage points in euro values, resulting in an average annual reduction of 3.5 percent;
• Mechanical Engineering¹¹, with a deceleration expected next year of 4.2 percentage points in euro values, resulting in an average annual reduction of 3 percent.

Strengthening global trade in capital goods starting in 2027

The ExportPlanning forecast scenario highlights a strengthening of the international demand framework for capital goods starting in 2027. In particular, for the three-year period 2027-2029, an average annual growth of +4.4% in euro values is forecast (equal to an average annual growth of +3.8% in dollar terms).

In the 2027-2029 scenario, the sectors expected to show the greatest reaccelerations are Industrial Machinery (whose global trade is expected to accelerate by approximately 9 percentage points, returning to an average annual growth rate of +4.3%), Tools and Equipment for ICT and services (whose global trade is expected to accelerate by approximately 8 percentage points, returning to an average annual growth rate of +4.3%), Automotive (whose global trade is expected to accelerate by almost 8 percentage points, returning to an average annual growth rate of +5.3%) and Electrotechnical Engineering (whose global trade is expected to accelerate by 7.4 percentage points, returning to an average annual growth rate of +3.8%).

For 2026 budgets:
the usefulness of product-specific market forecasts

2026 promises to be a particularly challenging year for companies exporting capital goods, with forecasts of widespread declines in global trade across various sectors.

With the aim of providing a detailed forecasting framework for over 150 global markets at the product-specific level, ExportPlanning offers the Budget Support service, part of the "on-demand" series Market Insights.