The first months of 2026 show a clear slowdown in EU exports of manufactured goods

Pre-estimates for Q1 2026 on EU foreign trade flows, available in the ExportPlanning Information System, point to a marked slowdown in EU exports of manufactured goods compared to 2025.
In particular, following the +3.8% recorded as the full-year result for last year, EU exports of manufactured goods in Q1 2026 showed a deceleration estimated at more than 6 percentage points.

Furthermore, as the table below shows, this deceleration appears widespread across all major manufacturing sectors, signalling that the heightened uncertainty of the first months of the year has had significant repercussions on the pace of sales growth for European manufacturing companies.

EU exports of manufactured goods: levels and year-on-year % changes in euros

Agri-food

EU exports in the agri-food sector, after the average annual growth of +6.9% in 2025, experienced a significant slowdown in the first months of 2026, estimated at more than 8 percentage points.

In particular, in Q1 of the year, EU exports in this sector, measured in euro values, showed the sharpest slowdowns in the following sub-sectors:

• Sugar, cocoa and spices, with EU sales going from +25.9% in 2025 to an estimated -15.8% for the first 3 months of 2026;
• Packaged tea and coffee: while remaining in positive territory, EU sales fell from +24.5% in 2025 to +9.3% in the most recent quarter;
• Milk, yoghurt, butter and cheeses: in the first three months of the year, EU sales gave up almost 14 percentage points of growth compared to the 2025 average;
• Fresh fruit: growth in EU sales scaled back by more than 10 percentage points, falling to +3.9% in the first three months of the year, down from +14.4% in the 2025 average.

Fashion/Personal System

EU exports in the fashion/personal system, after the average annual growth of +2.9% in 2025, experienced a slowdown estimated at 4.5 percentage points in the first months of 2026.

In particular, in Q1 of the year, EU exports in this sector, measured in euro values, showed the sharpest slowdowns in the following sub-sectors:

• Footwear, with EU sales in Q1 2026 scaling back by approximately 10 percentage points compared to the 2025 average, falling into negative territory;
• Underwear and hosiery, with EU sales in the most recent quarter slowing by approximately 8 percentage points compared to 2025, also falling into negative territory;
• Outerwear: here too, EU sector sales fell into negative territory in Q1 2026, with a slowdown in growth of more than 6 percentage points;
• Perfumes and cosmetics: in Q1 2026, EU sector sales slowed by approximately 6 percentage points compared to the 2025 average.

Home System

EU exports in the home system, after the average annual growth of +2.2% in 2025, experienced a slowdown estimated at more than 5 percentage points in the first months of 2026.

In particular, in Q1 of the year, EU exports in this sector, measured in euro values, showed the sharpest slowdowns in the following sub-sectors:

• Sawn wood: EU sector sales suffered a sharp contraction in Q1, estimated at more than 16 percentage points compared to the 2025 average;
• Household appliances: EU sector sales showed a slowdown of almost 8 percentage points, falling into negative territory from +5.9% in the 2025 average;
• Doors and windows: here too, EU sales showed a deceleration approaching 8 percentage points compared to the 2025 average, falling to negative year-on-year rates in Q1;
• Cement, lime, plaster and derived products: in Q1, EU sector sales also experienced a contraction compared to 2025 in the order of almost 8 percentage points, with negative year-on-year dynamics.

Chemicals/Pharmaceuticals

EU exports in the chemicals/pharmaceuticals sector, following an excellent growth performance in 2025 (+8.3% in euro values), experienced a sharp slowdown in the first months of 2026, estimated at more than 16 percentage points.

In particular, in Q1 of the year, EU exports in this sector, measured in euro values, showed the sharpest slowdowns in the following sub-sectors:

• Basic pharmaceutical products: after the exceptional 2025 performance (+64.6% in euro values), in Q1 EU sector sales experienced a very steep contraction, falling — in year-on-year terms — deep into negative territory;
• Medicines: EU sector sales, after +7.4% in 2025, showed a slowdown of more than 9 percentage points in the first months of 2026, also falling into negative territory;
• Electromedical equipment: EU sector sales, after average annual growth of +6.5% in 2025, showed a slowdown of more than 10 percentage points in the first months of 2026;
• Fertilisers and nitrogenous compounds: EU sector sales also experienced a double-digit slowdown (approaching 13 percentage points), thereby wiping out the +12.5% growth achieved last year.

Metal-mechanical

EU exports in the metal-mechanical sector, following moderate average annual growth in 2025 (+1.7% in euro values), experienced a stalling of growth in the first months of 2026.

In particular, in Q1 of the year, EU exports in this sector, measured in euro values, showed the sharpest slowdowns in the following sub-sectors:

• Ships and pleasure craft, whose EU sales showed a sharp decline after the excellent average annual performance in 2025 (+21.4% in euro values);
• Semiconductor manufacturing machinery, whose EU sales suffered an abrupt slowdown, falling into deeply negative year-on-year dynamics in the first three months of the year;
• Aircraft: in the first three months of 2026, EU sector sales also experienced a slowdown — though less pronounced in magnitude than the above sectors — but sufficient to bring year-on-year dynamics firmly into negative territory;
• Aircraft engines and other components: in this adjacent sector too, EU sales recorded a sharp slowdown of more than 10 percentage points, reflecting the difficulties experienced across the entire aerospace supply chain.

Conversely, some significant improvements in the most recent year-on-year dynamics are worth noting in the following metal-mechanical sub-sectors:

• Freight motor vehicles, whose EU sales — after a negative 2025 (-2.7% in euro values) — returned to positive year-on-year dynamics;
• Batteries and accumulators: although still not particularly dynamic, in Q1 EU sector sales managed to show a strengthening of about 6 percentage points;
• Agricultural machinery: EU sector sales — after +4.1% in the 2025 average (euro values) — showed a strengthening of growth in the first months of 2026, quantifiable at approximately 5 percentage points.

Conclusions

The most recent dynamics of manufacturing exports by European companies indicate, measured in euro values, a widespread deterioration compared to the 2025 average.

The picture of widespread slowdown in EU sales in the most recent months underscores the strategic value of continuous market condition monitoring for any exporting company, at the level of demand and of the dynamics of the main competitors for the product/strategic business area in question, in order to best support its international positioning.

With the aim of enabling constant monitoring of foreign markets of reference at a "product-specific" level, ExportPlanning offers the Customs Declarations Database service, an "on-demand" supply of monthly market data, customized at the level of customs codes and markets of interest.