World Trade Trends: International Trade Results in Q2 2026 (Preliminary Estimates)

Results at the level of total goods

The availability, on ExportPlanning, of preliminary estimates of international trade data for Q2 2026 (covering over 5,500 products, 3,000 strategic business areas, 220 sectors, and 20 industries) makes it possible to document a phase of strengthening in world trade in goods, measured both in nominal values in euros (up 12.8 percentage points year-on-year, a sharp acceleration versus the +0.7% recorded in the first quarter of the year) and at constant prices (net of inflation and exchange-rate effects): +12.9%, following the +10% of Q1-2026.

World trade strengthening in Q2-2026...

In the first half of the current year, world trade therefore shows year-on-year growth of nearly 7 percentage points in euro values (decidedly more dynamic than the +2% average for 2025) and of over 11 percentage points in the constant-price measure (more favorable than the +6.7% average recorded last year).

...with a half-year balance (decidedly) more favorable than the 2025 average, both in euro and at constant-prices.

Trends in world trade in total goods:
year-on-year changes

Results by product category

Analysis of international trade data for the first six months of the year (preliminary estimates), expressed at constant prices and therefore net of price effects, reveals differentiated dynamics across product categories.

Notable negative developments include:

• the weakness of the chemicals category, which in the first six months of 2026 showed a weak world trade dynamic (-0.2% versus the first half of 2025), although recovering in the second quarter of the year (+3.6% year-on-year);
• the recent difficulties in the fashion category (down almost 1 percentage point in the most recent quarter), leading to weak dynamics over the first six months of the year (+1%).

By contrast, the following are observed:

• signs of recent strengthening in international trade for the home/furnishings category (+3.2% year-on-year in the second quarter of the year) and the agri-food category (+4.1% year-on-year in Q2-2026), reinforcing the cumulative annual growth trend;
• confirmation, also in the most recent quarter, of accelerated dynamics for world trade in raw materials (+11.1% in Q2-2026) and, above all, in machinery and mechanical engineering (+21.6% in Q2-2026).

A picture that is nonetheless heterogeneous
at an industry level...

Trends in world trade by product category:
year-on-year changes at constant prices

...but with a (clear) prevalence of driving industries, especially in relation to AI applications, and the green and digital transitions

Driving industries

In the most recent quarter and, more broadly, in the first half of 2026, the following industries within the machinery and mechanical engineering category stand out for their accelerated growth in world trade (measured at constant prices):

• systems and equipment for artificial intelligence, electronic apparatus, and digital infrastructure; in particular:
• electronic components: +66.7% in Q2-2026 (bringing the overall figure to +61.6% in the first half of the year);
• instruments and equipment for ICT and services: +29% in Q2-2026 (for an overall +26.6% in the January-June 2026 period);
• electrical engineering: +12.2% in Q2-2026 (with a notable +11.7% in H1-2026);
• the automotive supply chain; in particular:
• transport and agricultural vehicles: +11% in Q2-2026 (for an overall +9.8% in the first half of the year);
• components for transport vehicles: +9.5% in Q2-2026, confirming the growth pace of the first quarter of the year.

In the most recent quarter and, more broadly, in the first half of 2026, the following commodity families recorded double-digit year-on-year growth in world trade (measured at constant prices):

• industrial commodities: +11.2% in Q2-2026, for an overall +10.6% in the first half of the year;
• natural commodities: +11% in Q2-2026, bringing the cumulative annual growth to +10.2%.

Lagging industries

In the first half of 2026, world trade in chemical intermediate goods recorded a year-on-year decline of nearly 4 percentage points in the constant-price measure (after the +7.5% recorded in 2025).

In the second quarter of 2026, world trade in finished personal-care products showed a marked slowdown in the constant-price measure (-1.5% in Q2-2026), leading to an essentially flat cumulative annual change (after the +8.4% average in 2025).

Conclusions

The picture that emerges from Q2 2026 is one of world trade in clear acceleration, with a half-year balance that is markedly more favorable than the 2025 average, both at current prices and net of inflation and exchange-rate effects.

For exporting companies, the most significant finding is not so much the intensity of aggregate growth as its composition: the recovery is being driven above all by machinery and mechanical engineering, with instruments and equipment for ICT, the automotive supply chain, and electronics and electrical engineering posting the strongest performances, alongside the good performance of raw materials.

On the opposite front, difficulties persist in chemicals (intermediate goods) — although with signs of recovery in the most recent quarter — and in the fashion/personal care system (finished personal-care products), which, after a positive start to the year, is now showing a year-on-year setback.

For companies active in supply chains heavily exposed to instrumental machinery and industrial intermediate goods, this scenario suggests an overall favorable international demand context, but one that should be monitored carefully given its sectoral heterogeneity: growth opportunities are currently concentrated in specific categories, while others call for more cautious and selective commercial strategies.