World trade in investment goods: signs of stability in the first quarter of 2025, but confirmation of significant sectoral differences

On the one hand, the "minus" signs continue for Automotive and Earth-moving Machinery, on the other hand, positive signals for Electrotechnical Engineering, Tools for ICT and services and Machinery

.

Metal industry Industrial equipment High-tech Uncertainty Conjuncture Industries Global economic trends
Stampa

The pre-estimates of the first quarter of 2025 of world trade, available in ExportPlanning in Quarterly World Trade Datamart, confirm overall moderate growth for world exports of investment goods. When measured at constant prices1, in the period January-March 2025 world exports of investment goods showed an estimated Year-over-Year growth of +2.4 percent, at the same pace as the 2024 average (+2.3% at constant prices).

Within the investment goods,
trends were quite differentiated at an industry level

World Exports of Investment Goods:
% Year-over-Year changes at constant prices

% Y-o-Y changes at constant prices
Industry Y2023 Y2024 Q1-2025E
Electrotechnical Engineering - 2.3% + 0.5% + 5.6%
Tools and Equipment for ICT and services - 7.1% + 7.3% + 8.6%
Tools and Equipment for industry + 0.4% + 5.6% + 3.4%
Automotive +14.7% - 0.5% - 3.8%
Agricultural Machinery - 7.0% -10.4% - 0.9%
Earth-moving Machinery + 5.7% - 5.1% - 3.3%
Industrial Machinery - 1.2% + 6.3% + 8.9%
Mechanical Engineering + 1.8% - 2.4% + 0.2%
TOTAL Investment Goods + 2.7% + 2.3% + 2.4%
Source: ExportPlanning - Data - Quarterly Trade Data, World Trade Datamart

Analyzing the data on global sales by industry of investment goods, in the most recent quarter rather differentiated trends emerge. In particular:

  • the following industries are accelerating and in broad positive territory:
    • Electrotechnical Engineering2: thanks to the +5.6% Year-over-Year in the first quarter of the year (constant prices), it is the industry with the greatest acceleration of global sales compared to the average pace of 2024;
    • Tools and Equipment for ICT and services3: further consolidation of growth in the most recent quarter (+8.6% Y-o-Y at constant prices, after the +7.3% of the 2024 average;
    • Industrial Machinery4: strengthening of growth in the most recent quarter (+8.9% Y-o-Y at constant prices, after the +6.3% of the 2024 average). It should also be highlighted that, within the industry, there are quite differentiated performances at a sectoral level5;
  • world exports are decelerating, although with still positive dynamics for Tools and Equipment for industry6, which in the first quarter of the year recorded a Y-o-Y growth of +3.4%, but less favorable than the average highlighted in 2024 (+5.6%);
  • world exports are improving, but with weak dynamics trend for Agricultural Machinery7 (-0.9% at constant prices, improving after the -10.4% average for 2024) and Mechanical Engineering8 (+0.2% Y-o-Y at constant prices, improving from the -2.4% average for 2024);
  • the following industries are still in negative territory:
    • Earth-moving Machinery9: despite improving compared to the 2024 average (-5.1%), the first quarter of 2025 shows a new Year-over-Year decline in prices constant (-3.3%);
    • Automotive10: the first quarter of the year saw an intensification of the difficulties already highlighted in 2024, with a Y-o-Y reduction of almost 4 percentage points at constant prices.

The importance of monitoring market conditions
at a "product-specific" level

Recent world trade data confirm an overall context of only moderate growth for the macro-sector of capital goods.
The high heterogeneity of the results at the sector level suggests, moreover, to an exporting company the strategic utility of continuous monitoring of market conditions, at the level of demand and dynamics of the main competitors for the product/strategic business area of reference, in order to allow it to best support its international positioning.

With the aim of allowing constant monitoring of foreign markets of reference at a "product-specific" level, ExportPlanning provides Market Insights, a new series of information services aimed at specifically supporting the market intelligence and budgeting processes of exporting companies.

1) The measure Quantities at constant prices (Q). This measure includes a deflation operation, in which the historical series of monetary values (V) has been transformed into an analogous series of values expressed at constant prices, with a reference to a given year, known as the base year. For a description of the methodology applied, please refer to Methodological Note on the Quarterly World Trade Datamart.
2) See here the related description table.
3) See here the related description table.
4) See here the related description table.
5) Within the Machinery industry, the best recent Year-over-Year performances are reported for world exports of Semiconductor manufacturing Machinery (+14.2% at constant prices compared to the corresponding period in 2024, thus consolidating the favorable trend of last year [+12.7%]), Metalworking Machine Tools (+15.9% Y-o-Y, in clear acceleration compared to the 2024 average [+1.8%]), Textile Machinery (+12.6% Y-o-Y, also in this case a significant improvement after the +2.9% of the 2024 average) and Other special purpose Machinery (+16.8% Y-o-Y, after the +9.8% of the 2024 average). On the other hand, recent negative trend performances are noted for global exports of Metal processing Machinery (-4.5% Year-over-Year at constant prices compared to the first quarter of 2024, confirming the negative trend of last year's average [-4.5%]) and recent slowdowns in Machine Tools for hard materials (+2.1% Y-o-Y, from +5.1% of the 2024 average) and Food Machinery (+0.6% Y-o-Y, from +4.9% of the 2024 average).
6) See here the related description table.
7) See here the related description table.
8) See here the related description table.
9) See here the related description table.
10) See here the related description table.